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Objectives of the Monte Carlo Project
The project has the following objectives :
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To develop a comprehensive set of mathematical algorithms, purpose built to take account of all the necessary components for stochastic modelling of a variety of food chemicals and to develop appropriate computer software.
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To conduct a multi-centre study, using existing national data, to explore the influence of input distributions on model output for the key components of a stochastic model of food chemical intake (i.e. food intake, chemical occurrence, chemical concentration, market share, brand loyalty, correlated foods).
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To generate databases of true intakes of
- food additives, based on brand level food consumption and ingredient composition,
- pesticide residues, based on duplicate diets and
- nutrients, based on biomarker studies.
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To assess the validity of the developed stochastic modelling software against true intakes, to conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of validated models, and to compare these intakes against those derived using current approaches to exposure assessment.
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To provide a comprehensive set of practical guidelines for the appropriate use of stochastic modelling of food chemical intake and to provide guidelines on the correct interpretation of the output of stochastic modelling.
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To actively communicate all research findings to national authorities and scientific bodies as well as standardisation bodies involved in food chemical exposure assessment at regular stages through the project and, furthermore, to incorporate their feedback in the development of the software and guidelines.
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